F.A.S. Public Interest Report

Journal of the Federation of American Scientists (F.A.S.)

Letter from the President

Contents

The Rogue States -- No Clear and Present Danger By John Pike Nobel Laureates Urge Against National Missile Defense Deployment Misguided Arms Export "Reforms" By Tamar Gabelnick UN Register on Conventional Arms Under Review By Tamar Gabelnick Science, Secrecy and Los Alamos By Steven Aftergood The Vote Is In! Back to FAS PIR Index

The policy issues faced by the scientific community have of grown dramatically more complex since FAS was founded over 50 years ago. The organization began before we understood that the cheap energy sources responsible for spectacular economic growth also had the ability to transform the climate and weather patterns of the entire planet, or that the molecular biology we depend on to cure disease and ensure food for six billion people could also lead to unimagined risks.

The scientific community has a vital role in addressing these issues because researchers have a unique early view of the opportunities and problems created by advances in science. They have a unique responsibility for bringing these issues to public attention and for ensuring that clear, timely, and relevant information is available to inform the public debate.

During the next few years, I would like to see FAS pursuing four major goals:

• We will work tirelessly to ensure that the Senate endorses the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.This treaty is a cornerstone of nonproliferation policy.
• We will help the US and its friends minimize the risk of missile attacks in a way that actually strengthens our security. This clearly doesn't include building a costly nationwide missile defense that won't work and would almost certainly trigger dangerous counter reactions from our friends and our adversaries.
• We will work to encourage communities around the world to explore ways that information technologies and other advanced technologies can create high living standards and a high levels of choice and individual freedom while ensuring minimal impact on the environment and no risk of nuclear proliferation.
• Finally, we will search for ways to use modern information technology to ensure that every American, and every citizen of the world has practical access to high quality, affordable education. While not sufficient, education is essential for ensuring that all people have equal access to the fruits of a prosperous world economy. Information technology provides a stunning new set of tools that can redefine what we can expect in the cost, quality, and availability of education for all people in all subjects.

We will, of course, continue and build on the superb programs FAS has underway in space policy, government secrecy, conventional weapons monitoring, animal health, and chemical and biological weapons.

Whether we like it or not, all of our fates are tied to the skill with which we manage technology - there is no possibility of retreat. The real test of American leadership in the coming generation will be whether we have the wisdom to combine investments in diplomacy and military readiness in ways that build real and lasting security for ourselves and our friends. Our security depends essentially on whether the net impact of our intervention in world affairs leads will lead to a world where individuals and companies focus their genius and passion on competing in business, in the arts, in scientific discovery - a world where global prosperity supports environmental quality and universal opportunity - a world where state supported weapons of mass destruction become truly unthinkable. Will we have the vision and the wisdom to do this or will we retreat from our collective responsibilities and look backwards? The next few years will be fateful ones. FAS can play a critical role if its members are willing to help. I hope you will.

--Henry Kelly, President

Nobel Laureates Urge Against National Missile Defense Deployment

On the eve of the third intercept test of the administration's national missile defense system, fifty American Nobel laureates of the sciences sent a letter to the President urging him not to decide to deploy the system. The day after the letter was sent, we received word that three additional Nobel laureates had agreed to sign - bringing the total number of supporters to 53. The letter concludes: "Even if the next planned test of the proposed anti-ballistic missile system works as planned, any movement toward deployment would be premature, wasteful and dangerous." The letter was sponsored by FAS and drafted by Dr. Hans Bethe, one of FAS's founders. The signers noted that their conclusion would not be altered by a successful third test.

Two days after the letter was sent, the third test failed when the kill vehicle failed to separate from its booster rocket. The target vehicle also failed to perform properly since it failed to deploy the single decoy balloon that accompanied the reentry vehicle. Thus, even if the kill vehicle had functioned properly, it would not have had the opportunity to demonstrate its ability even against the simplest decoy systems.

The letter has received wide attention from the media, notably in the New York Times and also as one of Time's "Verbatim" selections for the week. Other groups have also voiced similar objections. On April 29, the American Physical Society issued a statement that "the United States should not make a deployment decision relative to the planned National Missile Defense system unless that system is shown through analysis and through intercept tests to be effective against the types of offensive countermeasures that an attacker could reasonably be expected to deploy with its long range missiles." On June 29, a group of 45 China experts wrote a letter arguing that deployment could jeopardize Chinese participation in nonproliferation efforts and provoke a sharp increase in Chinese nuclear missile development.

It is unprecedented to have over 50 Nobel laureates sign a letter on arms control to the President. The strength of their conviction is measured in part by the fact that these signatures were obtained in less than two weeks. Credit is due to Charles Ferguson, Karen Kelley, and Amy Rossi of FAS and Lynn Erskine from the Council for a Livable World.

The full text of the letter and the affiliations of the signers are posted online.

The Vote Is In!

FAS would like to annouce the results of the FAS Council elections of the spring of 2000. Congratulations to our new Council members Barbara Hatch Rosenberg, Lynn Sykes, and David Albright. They will replace outgoing Council members Thomas Neff, Sidney G. Winter, and Steve Fetter.

Congratulations to our new FAS Chairman, Frank von Hippel, who will replace outgoing Chair Carl Kaysen. Dr. von Hippel leaves his previous position as FAS Fund Chair vacant; Steve Fetter has been appointed to this position.

On behalf of its members, FAS would like to thank all of its outgoing Council members for their hard work and dedication during their terms.